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The strawman that will never die

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Tom Schaller and Paul Waldman have a new book about the reactionary turn in white rural America that has predictably generated a great deal of criticism that is large on personal attacks and hand-waving and light on substantive response, the latter of which I’ve mean meaning to get to. (In the meantime, the authors respond here.) In the meantime, I wanted to highlight this blog by Tom Scocca, who responding to an attempt by a critic to draw what AFICT is a non-empirical, analytically useless distinction between “rage” and “resentment” points out that Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” speech did exactly what critics of white rural rage thesis insist that Democrats never do:

The key difference, Jacobs wrote, is that unlike rage, resentment “is rational, a reaction based on some sort of negative experience. You may not agree that someone has been treated unfairly, but there is room to empathize.” And liberals’ belief in white rural rage gets in the way of that necessary empathy, he argued, continuing a “reflexive condescension and dismissal of rural voters that escalated during the George W. Bush administration and peaked with Hillary Clinton’s campaign and her dismissal of Trump supporters as a ‘basket of deplorables.’”

What would expressing real concern for rural voters sound like? Jacobs explained that liberals need to find a whole new way of looking at Trump supporters. Trump’s rural voters are

people who feel the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures; and they’re just desperate for change. It doesn’t really even matter where it comes from. They don’t buy everything he says, but – he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won’t wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they’re in a dead-end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well.

Just kidding! That wasn’t Jacobs. It was Hillary Clinton, in those same remarks now known as the “Basket of Deplorables” speech. 

The whole point of the Basket of Deplorables speech was that there was more than one basket of Trump supporters. Clinton was telling her audience—the audience at the LGBTQ for Hillary Gala—that despite the visible, undeniable bigotry in the Trump movement, some of it directed specifically at them, not every potential Trump voter was a bigot or irredeemable. She was urging them to understand why ordinary Americans might be hungry enough for change to vote for someone like Trump.

And then the Trump movement responded by declaring that no, there was only one basket, that the racists and homophobes and xenophobes did, in fact, represent them all. The press, in turn, adopted the Trump position that Clinton had insulted everyone who supported Trump, and since her defeat has spent the next eight years, countless words, and who knows how much travel budget recreating exactly the message about understanding and empathy that Clinton had delivered in the first place—insisting, all the while, that no one had ever thought of it before. 

Eight years of asserting that Clinton said the nearly precise inverse of what she actually said has been very successful propaganda, and in the critics of White Rural Rage we see mostly futile attempts to square a familiar circle: i.e. 1)Democrats have made efforts to materially address the stated non-“deplorable” grievances of white rural America; 2)Republicans have not; and yet 3)white rural rage against Democrats and their core constituencies is both rationally justified and could be addressed by [insert vague underpants gnomes theory here] that Democrats stubbornly refuse to do because they regard all Trump supporters as deplorable. I will come back to this but it’s an exhausting cycle.

The post The strawman that will never die appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

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diannemharris
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Arizona Lawmaker Who Shared Abortion Plans on Senate Floor Had to Endure State-Mandated Counseling

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Earlier this month, Arizona state Sen. Eva Burch (D) learned eight weeks into her pregnancy that her embryo wasn't developing, and her choices were between an abortion or waiting for another miscarriage.  “I don’t think people should have to justify their abortions," Burch said in remarks on the Senate floor on March 20. "But I’m choosing to talk about why I made this decision because I want us to be able to have meaningful conversations about the reality of how the work that we do in this body impacts people in the real world.” Despite Burch knowing what was best for her and the right course of action for her nonviable pregnancy, the state of Arizona did not make the decision easy for her. In an interview with Jezebel Burch, a mother of two, said she chose to share her deeply personal experience, putting herself at risk of anti-abortion harassment, to shine a light on an everyday experience even in a state that doesn’t have a total abortion ban. On the Senate floor, Burch recounted her history of fertility struggles including numerous miscarriages and an abortion for a nonviable pregnancy two weeks before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. She told her colleagues she didn't want to go through another miscarriage. “I don’t know how many of you have been unfortunate enough to experience a miscarriage before, but I am not interested in going through it unnecessarily. Right now, the safest and most appropriate treatment for me—and the treatment that I choose—is abortion,” Burch said. “But the laws this legislature has passed have interfered with my ability to do that.”  But state law in Arizona, where abortion is legal through about 15 weeks of pregnancy, requires people seeking abortion care to receive state-directed counseling from their abortion provider. Abortion providers are required to tell them (among other things) that they have the option to parent or to put their child up for adoption. Of course, Burch did not have those options: Her pregnancy wasn’t viable. But she still had to sit through this politically charged, state-mandated guidance anyway. “From where I sat, the only reason I had to hear those things was a cruel and really uninformed attempt by outside forces to shame and coerce and frighten me into making a different decision other than the one that I knew was right for me,” Burch said in her speech. “There’s no one-size-fits-all script for people seeking abortion care, and the legislature doesn’t have any right to assign one.” https://twitter.com/A_DLCC/status/1769838751432270039 Burch and other Arizona Democrats have been trying to repeal this mandatory counseling abortion law for years now but are unable to advance their bills out of committee thanks to the Republicans’ majority. Burch introduced SB 1531 earlier this year to repeal the waiting period and other onerous restrictions. Speaking to Jezebel on Monday, Burch called the mandatory counseling she received “misguided and factually inaccurate at best,” but “in my case, hurtful, because I was mourning the loss of my pregnancy in that moment.” Burch emphasized that the counseling that abortion providers are required to offer isn’t written by medical experts but by anti-abortion “extremists” with a political agenda to stigmatize the health service and pressure someone out of making a personal medical decision. “They are also required to talk about the probable fetal anatomical properties at the time of the abortion procedure, which again, in my case was inaccurate since my embryo was dying and was not subject to the properties of a healthy, developing pregnancy,” Burch explained. Pregnancy and pregnancy loss are personal and emotionally charged…
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diannemharris
14 days ago
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Anti-mifepristone argument too dumb for even Trump nominees to stomach

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Where the law is determinate, judges will ignore it only when they have very strong policy preferences and the arrogance to believe they trump everything. In the mifepristone case, it looks like only Alito and perhaps Thomas will fall into this category:

Mary Ziegler, a law professor at the University of California at Davis who specializes in abortion, said she expects the Supreme Court to rule on standing and preserve access to mifepristone.

“Pretty clearly it seems a majority don’t think these people have standing,” she said, noting that Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. appeared to be the only one persuaded by the Alliance Defending Freedom’s arguments about standing.

The other big takeaway, she said, was the emphasis that Justices Clarence Thomas and Alito placed on the Comstock laws, long dormant laws from the 1800s that prohibit the mailing of “obscene” materials, including materials used for abortions.

Ziegler predicted that Alito and Thomas would write dissenting opinions arguing that Comstock “is very much alive — and that it bars the mailing of at least abortion pills and maybe much more.”

Interpreting the Comstock Act as banning abortion nationwide — another legally nonsensical claim — it the holy grail of the American anti-abortion movement, and looks like they have 3 votes to go.

Alito’s argument about why doctors who are not affected in any way by mifepristone being available have standing to challenge the FDA is…less than persuasive:

If your argument that an approved drug is so dangerous that the judiciary should usurp the FDA and revoke the approval cannot find a single person adversely affected by the drug to bring the suit, I believe the term for this is “self-refutation.”

This is even more farcical if you know that Alito has written multiple lengthy opinions asserting that abortion clinics do not have standing to challenge abortion statutes that would cause them to close down. I am once again remembering the affable Republican lawyer who went on at some length to me in 2006 about how liberals should be thrilled to get Sam Alito rather than some out-of-control reactionary.

Anyway, a bad day for Washington’s fash power couple is a good day for the United States.

The post Anti-mifepristone argument too dumb for even Trump nominees to stomach appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

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diannemharris
19 days ago
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The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald

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You know that asteroid that almost destroyed Earth in the 90s? Turns out the whole thing was secretly created by Michael Bay, who then PAID Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck to look heroic while blowing it up!
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satadru
19 days ago
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Lovely.
New York, NY
diannemharris
24 days ago
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Head canon
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oxfv
24 days ago
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Soon may Dave Letterman come

Wilderness Survival Tips for Women in Male-Dominated Fields

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Venturing into male-dominated fields like tech, politics, and finance is generally considered safe for women. But we’re still not out of the woods quite yet. Every year, there are countless reports of career-damaging and annoying encounters with men in the wild. Some simple common-sense tips can help you safely navigate these fields without being eaten alive or called “just a diversity hire.”

Make yourself look bigger and use assertive body language.

Lower every chair other than your own in the conference room before the meeting. Wear pants and sit with your legs apart. Stand with squared shoulders and confidently provide your opinion. Do not back down or break eye contact even if you suspect the CTO knows you have a protein bar in your bag.

Do not feed the men.

They have a natural fear of women, and feeding them lowers these inhibitions. Leave baked goods and birthday treats at home or keep them sealed in an airtight bag in your desk so they don’t come sniffing around.

Stand up and stand out.

It’s a common misconception that as a woman, you should camouflage yourself, keep your head down, and try to go through the male-dominated fields undetected. The men aren’t used to you being there and will lash out if surprised. Warn them of your presence by attaching a bell to your backpack. Clap your hands when rounding corners. They are accustomed to being applauded, and this will put them in a passive state. Announce your presence in a room with something agreeable to men like, “Lambo!” or, “AI is the future!”

Learn to identify tracks and droppings
in the fields so you know what
species you are likely to encounter.

If you find psilocybin microdose gummies, that’s a sure sign a tech founder is around the bend. Tufts of fleece from a vest or a Zyn nicotine pouch? You’re in finance bro territory.

Understand pecking orders.

In certain fields, the men have the advantage of bigger physical size, knowledge of the cultural terrain, and unearned access to natural resources like money, protection of the herd, presumption of higher skill level and rank, and dignity. They have assigned themselves alpha status in the pack by default. You’ll need to be exceptional at your job to earn the same respect as a mediocre man. Remember: you are assumed incompetent prey until proven otherwise.

Speak slowly in nonthreatening, low tones.

Their ears are different. Anything over a horny whisper registers as shrill to the men, and you will be perceived as a threat.

Never assert that any musician
or professional athlete is the “GOAT.”

The men will interpret this as a challenge to spar, and it will put you in the path of a dangerously boring interaction.

Walk. Don’t run.

Getting ahead of a man too fast will trigger a predator-prey reflex, and your promotion will be dismissively explained as “due to high-hanging fruit,” which will be followed by a pause and then, “I’m talking about boobs.” Make calculated, deliberate moves to avoid ruffling feathers. Be sure to back out of meetings slowly, but if the men start discussing cryptocurrency or VR, that’s an emergency, and you will need to get away quickly. Scream, “THE DOW IS DOWN 10 PERCENT!” while running in a serpentine pattern. They’ll be distracted by their portfolios, and their longer legs don’t corner well.

Recognize the behavioral signs of impending aggression.

The men charge or attack only when they feel threatened. If you see their face reddening, or they’re interrupting more than usual, or there’s an increase in their vocal speed or volume, those are warning signs that either you’re about to be left off the invite for the client pitch or your boss is going to confide in you that he and his wife are nothing more than roommates.

When all else fails, fight back.

If the preventative and de-escalating measures above don’t work and you find yourself in a high-conflict encounter with a man in the male-dominated fields, fight to defend yourself. In this unfortunate instance, you’ll have to resort to telling him you had sex with his mother last night. He will usually retreat after this, as men are fiercely protective of their food, their money, and their mothers’ chastity.

Stay together.

There is strength in numbers. As you climb to the top, you may encounter another woman on the same path. The worst thing you can do is throw her to the wolves to save yourself. Travel in packs and pave the way for future women traversing the male-dominated fields. Nature is cruel. You’re better than that.

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hannahdraper
36 days ago
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In certain fields, the men have the advantage of bigger physical size, knowledge of the cultural terrain, and unearned access to natural resources like money, protection of the herd, presumption of higher skill level and rank, and dignity. They have assigned themselves alpha status in the pack by default. You’ll need to be exceptional at your job to earn the same respect as a mediocre man. Remember: you are assumed incompetent prey until proven otherwise.
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diannemharris
30 days ago
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Once “too scary” to release, GPT-2 gets squeezed into an Excel spreadsheet | Ars Technica

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It seems like AI large language models (LLMs) are everywhere these days due to the rise of ChatGPT. Now, a software developer named Ishan Anand has managed to cram a precursor to ChatGPT called GPT-2—originally released in 2019 after some trepidation from OpenAI—into a working Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. It's freely available and is designed to educate people about how LLMs work.

"By using a spreadsheet anyone (even non-developers) can explore and play directly with how a 'real' transformer works under the hood with minimal abstractions to get in the way," writes Anand on the official website for the sheet, which he calls "Spreadsheets-are-all-you-need." It's a nod to the 2017 research paper "Attention is All You Need" that first described the Transformer architecture that has been foundational to how LLMs work.

Anand packed GPT-2 into an XLSB Microsoft Excel binary file format, and it requires the latest version of Excel to run (but won't work on the web version). It's completely local and doesn't do any API calls to cloud AI services.

Even though the spreadsheet contains a complete AI language model, you can't chat with it like ChatGPT. Instead, users input words in other cells and see the predictive results displayed in different cells almost instantly. Recall that language models like GPT-2 were designed to do next-token prediction, which means they try to complete an input (called a prompt, which is encoded into chunks called tokens) with the most likely text. The prediction could be the continuation of a sentence or any other text-based task, such as software code. Different sheets in Anand's Excel file allow users to get a sense of what is going on under the hood while these predictions are taking place.

Spreadsheets-are-all-you-need only supports 10 tokens of input. That's tiny compared to the 128,000-token context window of GPT-4 Turbo, but it's enough to demonstrate some basic principles of how LLMs work, which Anand has detailed in a series of free tutorial videos he has uploaded to YouTube.

In an interview with Ars Technica, Anand says he started the project so he could satisfy his own curiosity and understand the Transformer in detail. "Modern AI is so different from the AI I learned when I was getting my CS degree that I felt I needed to go back to the fundamentals to truly have a mental model for how it worked."

He says he was originally going to re-create GPT-2 in JavaScript, but he loves spreadsheets—he calls himself "a spreadsheet addict." He pulled inspiration from data scientist Jeremy Howard's fast.ai and former OpenAI engineer Andrej Karpathy's AI tutorials on YouTube.

"I walked away from Karpathy's videos realizing GPT is mostly just a big computational graph (like a spreadsheet)," he says, "And [I] loved how Jeremy often uses spreadsheets in his course to make the material more approachable. After watching those two, it suddenly clicked that it might be possible to do the whole GPT-2 model in a spreadsheet."

We asked: Did he have any difficulty implementing a LLM in a spreadsheet? "The actual algorithm for GPT2 is mostly a lot of math operations which is perfect for a spreadsheet," he says. "In fact, the hardest piece is where the words are converted into numbers (a process called tokenization) because it's text processing and the only part that isn't math. It would have been easier to do that part in a traditional programming language than in a spreadsheet."

When Anand needed assistance, he naturally got a little help from GPT-2's descendant: "Notably ChatGPT itself was very helpful in the process in terms helping me solve thorny issues I would come across or understanding various stages of the algorithm, but it would also hallucinate so I had to double-check it a lot."

GPT-2 rides again

This whole feat is possible because OpenAI released the neural network weights and source code for GPT-2 in November 2019. It's particularly interesting to see that particular model baked into an educational spreadsheet because when it was announced in February 2019, OpenAI was afraid to release it—the company saw the potential that GPT-2 might be "used to generate deceptive, biased, or abusive language at scale."

Still, the company released the full GPT-2 model (including weights files needed to run it locally) in November 2019, but the company's next major model, GPT-3, which launched in 2020, has not received an open-weights release. A variation of GPT-3 later formed the basis for the initial version of ChatGPT, launched in 2022.

Anand's spreadsheet implementation runs "GPT-2 Small," which unlike the full 1.5-billion-parameter version of GPT-2 clocks in at 124 million parameters. (Parameters are numerical values in AI models that store patterns learned from training data.) Compared to the 175 billion parameters in GPT-3 (and even larger models), it probably would not qualify as a "large" language model if released today. But in 2019, GPT-2 was considered state-of-the-art.

You can download the GPT-2-infused spreadsheet on GitHub, though be aware that it's about 1.2GB. Because of its complexity, Anand said it can frequently lock up or crash Excel, especially on a Mac; he recommends running the sheet on Windows. "It is highly recommended to use the manual calculation mode in Excel and the Windows version of Excel (either on a Windows directory or via Parallels on a Mac)," he writes on his website.

And before you ask, Google Sheets is currently out of the question: "This project actually started on Google Sheets, but the full 124M model was too big and switched to Excel," Anand writes. "I’m still exploring ways to make this work in Google Sheets, but it is unlikely to fit into a single file as it can with Excel."

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diannemharris
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acdha
31 days ago
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Washington, DC
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